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What variables cause the difference in model assumptions.?

by Lew 8/22/2012 10:00:42 AM
I have noticed that that accuracy of the cone of probability has been very good over the past few years. Has there been any studies that provide the percentage of accuracy 5 days out?

by kc 8/22/2012 10:00:46 AM
I have noticed that that accuracy of the cone of probability has been very good over the past few years. Has there been any studies that provide the percentage of accuracy 5 days out?

by kc 8/22/2012 10:00:47 AM
We're just getting started here, folks. Kait has a quick live report on our air and she'll be over here!

by Mollie Reynolds 8/22/2012 10:01:11 AM
@kc Hi KC, yes. There has been significant improvement over the past several years. Last year the NHC debuted a new error cone that covers a smaller area.

by Kait Parker via mobile 8/22/2012 10:08:10 AM
The ULL is also moving very fast so this could be good news for all of us :)

by Doug Tessler 8/22/2012 10:10:47 AM
What are the chances that the Treasure Coast could see hurricane force windows? Or will it be more of tropical force windows for the T.C area?

by Richard Malcolm 8/22/2012 10:10:47 AM
I know were not suppose to focus on the center however, if this is the track what kind of winds/weather would wpb be looking at?

by wendy 8/22/2012 10:10:48 AM
Why not show the European track if it is so accurate?

by Rex Null 8/22/2012 10:10:49 AM
looks like s upper level low could keep this storm from developing ?

by Doug Tessler 8/22/2012 10:10:50 AM
If this thing comes our way what happens to the homemade cheese i have fermenting in my family room?

by Mary 8/22/2012 10:10:52 AM
Good morning ladies! Mollie, you're up bright and early. Kait, rockin the powder blue. Makes your eyes pop. Think this is really going to get us or continue to turn toward the north?

by MichaelBosco 8/22/2012 10:10:52 AM
Any helpful advice on how to keep a 70lb lab/pit mix calm? He hates rain storms and he's never been through a hurricane before.

by Brian 8/22/2012 10:10:54 AM
I heard about the European track. Why is it not shown if it is so accurate?

by Rex Null 8/22/2012 10:10:54 AM
I am using oxygen 24 hrs a day do I have to register at the Fair grounds to be able to go there in case of a hurricane???

by ATT 8/22/2012 10:10:55 AM
So should I get ready to put my shutters up? What should I do with my dogs? Will the stores be open? And that Cone Of Death thing, I am scared!

by MP 8/22/2012 10:10:56 AM
I will like to know if school will be open Monday?

by Krissy 8/22/2012 10:10:58 AM
@Lew A ton of things, Lew. High pressure, low pressure, terrain, ocean temperatures, wind shear. They all influence models.

by Kait Parker 8/22/2012 10:13:32 AM
I don't see my comment so I'll try again. Do you have an "off the record" prediction for the Treasure Coast/Fort Pierce area? Also what tools are there for an Android phone and Kindle Fire that you mentioned?

by JT 8/22/2012 10:13:50 AM
@JT If I were to answer that it would not be "off the record"! :) We have a number of apps, they can be found on wptv.com

by Kait Parker 8/22/2012 10:14:51 AM
@Richard Malcolm Chances are low right now, Richard. We're watching and waiting for the time being. As we get closer to the weekend we will have a better picture of how things will go.

by Kait Parker 8/22/2012 10:15:29 AM
@wendy IF and that is a bif IF, it would be strong tropical storm force or category one winds.

by Kait Parker 8/22/2012 10:16:09 AM
@Rex Null Hi Rex, we do show the Euro and most other models. They fluctuate on which is the most accuate.

by Kait Parker 8/22/2012 10:19:38 AM
@MichaelBosco Models are trending east but there is still a lot of time and factors to affect this storm. We will have to see how it interacts with the islands and the mountains there.

by Kait Parker 8/22/2012 10:20:42 AM
@Brian Yes! I would suggest laying on top of him. (That's what calms my giant dog during storms!) But a more realistic approach would be a thunder shirt, they are a snug shirt that helps them feel comforted.

by Kait Parker 8/22/2012 10:21:58 AM
The little deal yall have on facebook to play the cone is cool Kate.

by Beth 8/22/2012 10:22:22 AM
Hi Kait (& Mollie!) What category do you think the hurricane will be when it makes landfall in Florida? Thanks :)

by Lauren 8/22/2012 10:22:28 AM
@Lauren It's not a guarantee that this storm will landfall in Florida, there is a high chance it will go east or west of the peninsula.

by Kait Parker 8/22/2012 10:23:26 AM
@Krissy Hi Krissy, no schools have cancelled or delayed
. It is far too early for that call to be made.

by Kait Parker 8/22/2012 10:24:21 AM
@MP It's an error cone, lots of room for just that, error. We recommend shutters if there is a Hurricane Watch issued.

by Kait Parker 8/22/2012 10:26:18 AM
The point is we can always prepare but not to panic

by Doug Tessler 8/22/2012 10:26:48 AM
So wait on buying supplies?

by Noah Gomez 8/22/2012 10:26:52 AM
@Noah Gomez Now is a good reminder that you should already HAVE all your supplies and make sure nothing has expired.

by Kait Parker 8/22/2012 10:28:04 AM
Good Morning Mollie and Kait... just curious if Isaac stays on this path, when do you forsee warnings going up for S. Fla...worried about School on Monday etc....

by Lauren 8/22/2012 10:28:34 AM
@Lauren If we see warnings they will likely begin on Sunday.

by Kait Parker 8/22/2012 10:29:06 AM
Hi Kait. I got the Hurricane guide at Publix yesterday... And I was surprised at the stuff I didn't know in it... And I've been through a storm before... Right now... For supplies... I call this the "Water Batteries, and Beer" stage... Is that fair?

by Tim Allan Walker 8/22/2012 10:29:39 AM
@Tim Allan Walker Oh TA...water and batteries I can condone...I don't know about beer ;)

by Kait Parker 8/22/2012 10:30:16 AM
Leaving for New York today & returning Monday evening…………..good idea or should I just cancel the whole trip?

by Jeannie Camenzuli-Bilodeau 8/22/2012 10:30:24 AM
@Jeannie Camenzuli-Bilodeau It is way too early to cancel a trip...there is still a lot of room for error with this storm, it could go way east or west of us or die over the mountains in the caribbean

by Kait Parker 8/22/2012 10:33:01 AM
so i need water and batteries and what else?

by matt strazza 8/22/2012 10:33:48 AM
@matt strazza Here's link to the hurricane survival guide...it has everything you need! media2.wptv.com

by Kait Parker 8/22/2012 10:34:15 AM
What times do the hurricane updates from NOAA occur?

by PaMby 8/22/2012 10:34:24 AM
@PaMby It depends on what we have out there. Typically at 5, 11 but during storms we have intermediate advisories at 2 and 8. those times are both am and pm

by Kait Parker 8/22/2012 10:35:06 AM
OK, thanks!!!!!!!!!

by Jeannie Camenzuli-Bilodeau 8/22/2012 10:35:12 AM
How much water per family member should we plan for a pending storm?

by Tom 8/22/2012 10:35:20 AM

WEATHER ALERTS:

Areal Flood Advisory issued May 20 at 10:28PM EDT expiring May 21 at 12:30AM EDT in effect for: Palm Beach…

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